On the 18th, while some energy, chemical and agricultural products were stabilizing, black products were still green.By the end of the day, the main contracts of iron ore, screw thread and hot coil were down 4.63%, 3.09% and 2.70% respectively, while the main contracts of coking coal, coke and Zhengmei were down 4.15%, 2.21% and 0.50% respectively.
Black commodities, especially steel futures, have been falling continuously.In addition to the factors of capital leaving the market, they are also related to the weakness of spot fundamentals.
According to the statistics of “my steel network”, as of November 18, the national average price of rebar was 3038 yuan / ton, down 123 yuan / ton or 3.9% compared with the previous week; the national average prices of hot rolling and cold rolling were 3315 yuan / ton and 4235 yuan / ton, down 3.3% and 1.1% respectively.
”My steel network” analyst Zhang Chenliang told Shanghai stock exchange news that the fall of steel futures and current prices, the recovery of steel factory inventory and the narrowing of social inventory decline all show that the balance of supply and demand in the steel market has changed, and it is expected that the negative factors of rebar will still be released next week.However, the delivery of iron ore contracts in recent months is approaching, and there is little chance of a substantial short, and the absolute inventory of various varieties is still at a low level, so the spot does not have the basis for a substantial decline.
Different from steel spot market, coal spot market is still strong.According to the “my iron and steel network” monitoring, on the 18th, the main coking coal price in Tangshan was 1450 yuan / ton, the same as last week.Coke prices continued to rise sharply.On the 18th, the absolute price index of Mysteel coke was 2037.5 yuan / ton, up 139.7 yuan / ton or 7.4% from Friday.The arrival price of Tangshan secondary metallurgical coke was 2215 yuan / ton, up 175 yuan / ton or 12.7% from the previous week.
Based on the performance of the spot market, “my steel network” analysts believe that the shortage of coking coal resources may continue, and it is expected that the short-term coking coal price will have strong support.Considering the factors of raw materials, demand and transportation, the price of coke spot market is easy to rise but difficult to fall in the short term.
Since the beginning of this year, the black varieties represented by coking coal, coke, iron ore and rebar have experienced several rounds of significant rise and market fluctuation, and the positions and trading volume have also been greatly expanded.