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300363博腾股份股票_次新股投资新逻辑:新低大(2017-03-16)

300363博腾股份股票

300363博腾股份股票——证券公司资产证券化业务管理规定

  从今年2月10日开始,以张家港银行、江阴银行为首的银行类次新股点燃了市场对次新股板块的热情,次新股板块一路高歌猛进。We select the secondary new stocks that have been listed on February 9 and have not been suspended, and find that there is an obvious rule in the growth list from February 10 to February 28: the closer the listing time is, the greater the growth of secondary new stocks.
  1、 Valuation has become an important measure

  Since 2016, there is a common phenomenon that the P / E ratio of new shares is not higher than 23 times.After the new shares are listed, they can continuously obtain the “one word board”.Low P / E ratio is one of the important reasons, and many new shares are still at a low level after opening the trading limit.In other words, different from the previous theme focused speculation logic of sub new shares, the recent market of sub new shares is more biased towards valuation, and the undervalued sub new shares are more likely to be favored by investors.
  Taking TTM P / E ratio as the standard, we divide the sub new shares listed since 2016 which have opened the trading limit.It is obvious that the increase of sub new shares in the low P / E ratio group is significantly better than that in the high P / E ratio group.When the P / E ratio of new shares exceeds 70, there is no excess return in the larger market; when the P / E ratio of new shares exceeds 130, the excess return in the larger market is – 1.82%.

300363博腾股份股票——余楚媛

  According to the classification of Shenyi class industries, it can be seen that the industries with higher growth are finance, transportation, steel, electrical equipment, public utilities, etc., which are all sectors with lower traditional valuation or sectors with improved expected profits.This shows that the recent secondary new stock market is no longer just the pursuit of small circulation, less selling, scarcity, capital stock selection is more and more emphasis on the level of valuation.

  If we divide them according to the median of the stock market’s earnings ratio / corresponding Shenwan’s tertiary industry’s earnings ratio, we can find that when the median of the stock market’s earnings ratio / corresponding Shenwan’s tertiary industry’s earnings ratio is less than 1.5, there is no significant difference in the level of return among the groups, which is similar to the overall 4.88% earnings ratio; but if the relative earnings ratio is too high, the yield will drop rapidly.
  2、 New stocks like big blockbusters

300363博腾股份股票——博时贰号

  When we use the total market value index to divide the sub new shares, we can find that, different from the general cognition, the sub new shares with small total market value may not have a big increase, but the group with the largest total market value has the highest increase.Even excluding bank and non bank financial sub new shares, the increase of sub new shares in large market value group is much higher than that in small market value group.进一步回顾历史,我们将次新股按总市值分为五类,并发现在不同时期,大市值组的二次新股成长性均好于小市值组(根据流通市值大小也有相似的结论)
  这一轮新股市场还有一个规律,就是投资者更喜欢流通股比例较小的新股。这样,就可以用相对较少的资金撬动市值较大的股票,达到小而广的效果。

  3、 细分行业公司数量适中,容易扩散

300363博腾股份股票——上市公司私有化

  从行业稀缺性角度看,行业集中度适中的个股表现最好。通过将次新股分为申万的三级行业,我们可以看到,次行业有15-30家公司的次新股增长率最高。显然,公司数量适中的子行业更容易分散市场。当子行业公司数量超过40家时,由于行业稀缺性不足,回报率大幅下降。
  4、 次新股发行与概念热点的共振

  次新股发行一直受到投资者的青睐,而概念热点也是市场的方向。在我们选取的253只次新股样本中,有148只次新股存在一定的概念热点,约占60%,这148只次新股涵盖了39个概念热点。我们提取平均涨幅最高的前十大概念热点,可以发现即使剔除“次新股”因素,也有5个概念热点,其自身概念指数涨幅位列市场前十。由此可见,当次新股叠加当前市场概念热点时,往往能有较高的盈利表现。

  5、 基于开放二级新股跌停的买入策略
  我们整理了2015年股市崩盘后IPO重启以来上市的新股。以开盘当日为轴,假设以开盘当日收盘价买入,计算次日、周、两周、一个月的持仓收益。为了便于统计,同时也为了观察不同时期的规律,我们以周为时间单位,以一周内开盘跌停的次新股的算术平均数作为该时期的收益。

  从统计结果来看,短期(一日、一周)收益率在跌停开盘后波动较大,没有明显规律;中长期(两周、一个月)收益率呈现一定的周期性和收敛性。因此,找到一个更好的买入窗口并持有一段时间将是一个更好的投资策略。
  由于二级新股通常比上证综指具有更大的灵活性,相对收益率和绝对收益率的统计结果基本一致。值得一提的是,二级新股跌停开盘后第二天与大盘无关,同向概率仅为51.61%;但二级新股跌停开盘后一个月与大盘关联度较高,同向概率为67.38%。

  如果观察开盘后的正收益概率(即中签率),我们发现短期(一天、一周)没有明显规律,中长期(两周、一个月)有一定的收敛性。
  6、 寻找潜在的高质量次级IPO目标

  根据上述分析,我们从战略角度选择了一些有潜力的优质次新股发行对象,但并未对公司基本面进行深入分析,以供投资者参考。截至2017年2月28日,具体筛选标准如下:
  1) 二级新股自2016年1月1日起上市,开市跌停;

  2) 动态市盈率低于50,不高于申万三级产业板块市盈率中位数的150%;
  3) 总市值超过150亿元,流通市场比重低于15%;

  4) 不同行业的上市公司有10-40家。
  筛选结果如下:中国银河、世源股份有限公司、晶旺电子、杭茶集团、宇通科技、上海银行、崇大科技、鼎鑫通讯、OPP照明、新华文轩、江苏银行、飞科电气等。

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