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「482002基金」债市风云突变(2016-12-21)

482002基金——国际三大证券交易所

  昨天,债券市场突然上演了一场“突变”。早盘,国债期货仍在下跌,但午后突然翻红。银行间市场现货债券收益率也由升转降。午后市场流动性紧张局面明显缓解,市场情绪较前日有所好转。

482002基金
  对于背后的原因,市场人士认为,除了央行昨日加大公开市场净投放外,据传央行当天还通过“x回购”这一市场化工具引导部分银行进行资金投放,释放央行多渠道增加流动性投资、提振市场信心的重要信号。

  多品种债券调整发行方案
  不过,中国银行宣布将取消原定于2016年发行7年期和20年期债券的计划。

482002基金——金太阳炒股软件

  不仅是政策性金融债券调整了发行计划,国债也在减量发行。昨日,财政部今日发行的两期2016年记账式计息国债发行规模分别降至160亿元,较上一期280亿元大幅缩减。

  “在市场环境不好的情况下,降低国债发行规模可以在一定程度上减轻市场压力。”某银行债券交易负责人告诉记者,上周五短期国债的流动性压力已经显现。Recently, the Ministry of finance has found out some members of the underwriting group and timely adjusted the bond issuance plan.
  In the past, due to the tight market conditions, issuers usually adjust their funds in consideration of the market situation.In fact, since last week, many enterprises have adjusted their bond issuance plans, and this trend has intensified this week.

482002基金——书生中学

  Since the beginning of this week, not only have many debt financing instruments such as zhongpiao and short-term financing been delayed or cancelled, but also special bonds and personal mortgage-backed securities delayed the issuance plan.According to CITIC Securities, last week alone, 29 bonds were cancelled, mainly in the steel, transportation and public utilities industries.
  Huachuang securities fixed income team pointed out that due to the recent shortage of funds, the bond market has been adjusted more and more widely, and some institutions will lose money when they buy new bonds, so it is more and more difficult to issue credit bonds, and many issuers are forced to cancel the issuance.However, the demand for funds of bonds cancelled at present will always exist, and it is expected that the bonds cancelled now may form supply pressure in the future.

  Multi channel “selling” to boost market confidence

482002基金——基金420001

  It is worth noting that yesterday morning’s bond futures, which were still falling, suddenly turned red in the afternoon.The bond market staged a “sudden change”.
  In addition, although the overall yield of interest rate bonds in the inter-bank market was still on the rise yesterday, the range was narrower than the day before yesterday.In the afternoon, the market sentiment also gradually improved.The yield of China national debt 10-year bond rose by 4 basis points to 3.37%.In the afternoon, the market liquidity situation also tended to improve.

  The reporter learned that this was mainly due to the market spread in the afternoon: the central bank guided some banks to put funds into the market through the inter-bank pledge repo anonymous click business (x-repo) on that day.Although the total amount was not much, it was regarded by market participants as a signal of the central bank’s multi-channel “move” to boost market confidence.

  The logic behind it is that “unlike the central bank’s open market, which only provides funds to banks and other primary dealers, the x-repo can make the non banking institutions even in the rain, which is conducive to improving the pattern of uneven distribution of liquidity.”华东某银行资深债券交易员向记者解释了X-Repo这一市场化工具的重要意义。
  他告诉记者,目前在X-Repo系统里,各类机构都可以参与报价,虽然昨日在该系统上投放的资金不多,但却释放出央行多渠道维稳的信号。

  中信证券债券分析师明明进一步解释称,央行指导部分银行通过X-Repo释放流动性,有助于缓解市场紧张情绪。 “近期债券市场波动的确有些过度,需要央行来稳定市场信心。”
  X-回购层的X-回购层的估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计,8估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计估计据 匹配成交后,正回购方按照同业拆借中心设定的统一折算率提交质押券,完成交易。 匿名点击省去了反复询价和成交确认环节,具有操作流程短、交易时效性强、报价效率高等优势。

  事实上,央行多渠道维稳的信号,还体现在昨日的公开市场上,央行净投放资金力度也在“加码”。 若加上昨日到期的国库现金定存资金量,昨日央行实际净投放资金量1050亿元,较前一交易日增加逾六成。
  业内人士表示,当前央行对短期流动性的态度,依旧是影响当前市场的重要因素。 目前央行仍坚持中性稳健的操作,对冲维稳态度明显。 由于年关临近,故市场对流动性的担忧仍难消退,流动性风险仍需警惕。

  【市场动态】
  

  记者采访了富国大通副总裁李大治、博时基金固定收益研究总监王申、国泰君安证券固定收益部董事总经理周文渊、申万宏源证券固定收益部首席分析师范为,复盘本轮债市下跌的原因及市场趋势。
  中信建投证券:明年债券市场整体呈波动状

  中信建投证券宏观与债券研究团队首席分析师黄文涛表示,债市短期存在超调风险,由于本轮去杠杆下,货币基金和债券基金的赎回及部分委外暂停续作压力在不断发酵,债券代持等交易风险上升,流动性压力趋紧。

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