Under the acceleration of IPO, the scarcity of new shares is greatly reduced, and new shares bear the brunt of the impact.The most intuitive performance is that the rise of a single new share has shrunk significantly after the opening, and less than 100% of the situation appears in multiple new shares.The impact on the new rate of return can easily lead to the selling pressure of funds, which will affect the market.
”In the first half of 2016, the new threshold of Shanghai stock market is 10 million, which has become 20 million since July and 30 million since October.By the first quarter of 2017, it was 50 million.We estimate that it will be 60 million in the second quarter, 70 million in the third quarter and 80 million in the fourth quarter.” Lin Bo, director of Fujian snowball, told first finance.
It can not be ignored that the fluctuation of the market value of the bottom position is further enlarged, which also makes the management of fund managers quite difficult.Because the fund position has increased, it may lead to a loss due to careless stock selection, and the newly earned money will be lost.It is understood that the increase of the threshold for new funds also puts forward requirements on the scale of funds.At present, most new funds take “new funds + fixed income” as the main strategy.
”With the gradual increase of the proportion of the bottom position scale in the portfolio, the differentiation of the bottom position equity investment gradually appears, the impact of the bottom position income on the portfolio net value gradually increases, and the risk preference of funds is also gradually increasing.”Beijing public fund manager said.
Absolute returns are not affected much
Since 2017, the new IPO supervision system has continued to reduce the return of IPO funds, which makes the IPO market still sell faster.
”At present, although from a static point of view, the increase in the supply of new shares in December offsets the decline in the listing performance, the static annualized yield is not low.The annualized yield of class A in December is 15.9%, and that of class C is 6.5% CICC said.
”Taken together, the average monthly income of Shanghai stock market’s off-line subscription of new shares in 2016 is 500000-600000 yuan.The new revenue is relatively stable, but the yield is declining.Because the monthly threshold is increasing, that is to say, if the threshold is 10 million, 600000 is 6%.When the threshold is 60 million, the monthly average income of 600000 is only 1%.If the threshold is further raised, the rate of return will further decline.In 2016, the annualized rate of return of category C is more than 30%, but in 2017, it may be only 8% ~ 10% Lin Bo further said.
According to the opening rate of 165% of new shares in the last two weeks, CICC estimates that the annualized yield of class a investors under 120 million yuan is still about 13.3%, but the expected annualized yield of class C unrestricted products has dropped to 4.7%.
The above-mentioned Beijing public fund manager pointed out that the new return rate = the absolute amount of the new return, and the absolute amount of the new return is equal to the number of new shares winning the lottery.“从去年11月开始，新股发行量翻了一番，从去年12月开始，新股发行量增加了过去的1/2。所以在单个新股中A级产品（社保+公募）的发行量没有明显变化的情况下，新增收益的绝对金额没有明显变化。”该基金经理表示。