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【361期货论坛】打新收益下降:底仓风险暴露(2017-01-17)

361期货论坛

361期货论坛——mc天使投资基金

  打新静态年化收益率不算低,A类12月年化打新收益率达15.9%,C类非受限也有6.5%的年化收益率。
  Under the acceleration of IPO, the scarcity of new shares is greatly reduced, and new shares bear the brunt of the impact.The most intuitive performance is that the rise of a single new share has shrunk significantly after the opening, and less than 100% of the situation appears in multiple new shares.The impact on the new rate of return can easily lead to the selling pressure of funds, which will affect the market.

  截至1月16日收盘,创业板市场下跌3.64%,盘中跌幅超过6%。中小盘股表现疲软,导致估值中心下移,新股价格收窄,形成负周期。此外,当C类投资者的融资成本高于新增收益时,也会导致市场底部头寸的短期抛售行为。
  北京一位公募基金经理指出,虽然新股开盘率有所下降,但新股数量有所增加,在A级产品中签金额没有明显变化的情况下,新增收益的绝对金额不会有明显变化。

361期货论坛——狂奔过时间

  新底部风险

  据中国第一财经不完全统计,2017年以来,共有24家公司获得IPO核准文件,截至1月13日,平均每天核准新股数量为1.85只。本批新股共发行10只,募集资金41亿元,较前一批48亿元略有减少。
  近期,新股发行速度加快。一个明显的现象是新股表现不佳,开盘率明显下降。例如,最近的太平洋鸟开放日(603877。SH)只有三天,相应的开放率只有92%。此外,晶旺电子、日月股份、嘉家乐、华安证券、贵广网络、杭察集团等多只新股开盘后涨幅不足100%。

361期货论坛——西法微博

  中金公司认为,新股涨幅回落主要有两个原因。一方面,新股发行节奏加快对新股稀缺性产生负面影响;另一方面,在市场估值持续下行的过程中,中小市值的弱势表现压制了市场对新股估值的预期,而新股表现不佳又反过来影响中小市值股的表现。
  此外,值得注意的是,如果C类投资者的年化收益率不能覆盖新产品的成本,部分投资者可能会退出新盘,其为新产品买入的市场底部头寸也可能存在短期内卖出的风险。

  在去年12月的第五批新股中,出现了第一只新股狂飙(603966只)。市值6000万。据机构人士预测,在现有体制下,市值底部位置持续上升可能是一种趋势,不可逆转。

361期货论坛——每股盈余

  ”In the first half of 2016, the new threshold of Shanghai stock market is 10 million, which has become 20 million since July and 30 million since October.By the first quarter of 2017, it was 50 million.We estimate that it will be 60 million in the second quarter, 70 million in the third quarter and 80 million in the fourth quarter.” Lin Bo, director of Fujian snowball, told first finance.
  It can not be ignored that the fluctuation of the market value of the bottom position is further enlarged, which also makes the management of fund managers quite difficult.Because the fund position has increased, it may lead to a loss due to careless stock selection, and the newly earned money will be lost.It is understood that the increase of the threshold for new funds also puts forward requirements on the scale of funds.At present, most new funds take “new funds + fixed income” as the main strategy.

  ”With the gradual increase of the proportion of the bottom position scale in the portfolio, the differentiation of the bottom position equity investment gradually appears, the impact of the bottom position income on the portfolio net value gradually increases, and the risk preference of funds is also gradually increasing.”Beijing public fund manager said.

  Absolute returns are not affected much
  Since 2017, the new IPO supervision system has continued to reduce the return of IPO funds, which makes the IPO market still sell faster.

  ”At present, although from a static point of view, the increase in the supply of new shares in December offsets the decline in the listing performance, the static annualized yield is not low.The annualized yield of class A in December is 15.9%, and that of class C is 6.5% CICC said.
  ”Taken together, the average monthly income of Shanghai stock market’s off-line subscription of new shares in 2016 is 500000-600000 yuan.The new revenue is relatively stable, but the yield is declining.Because the monthly threshold is increasing, that is to say, if the threshold is 10 million, 600000 is 6%.When the threshold is 60 million, the monthly average income of 600000 is only 1%.If the threshold is further raised, the rate of return will further decline.In 2016, the annualized rate of return of category C is more than 30%, but in 2017, it may be only 8% ~ 10% Lin Bo further said.

  According to the opening rate of 165% of new shares in the last two weeks, CICC estimates that the annualized yield of class a investors under 120 million yuan is still about 13.3%, but the expected annualized yield of class C unrestricted products has dropped to 4.7%.
  The above-mentioned Beijing public fund manager pointed out that the new return rate = the absolute amount of the new return, and the absolute amount of the new return is equal to the number of new shares winning the lottery.“从去年11月开始,新股发行量翻了一番,从去年12月开始,新股发行量增加了过去的1/2。所以在单个新股中A级产品(社保+公募)的发行量没有明显变化的情况下,新增收益的绝对金额没有明显变化。”该基金经理表示。

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