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361黄金投资_上市公司2016年业绩预计将下降5%(2017-01-20)

361黄金投资——华东医药股票

  目前,沪深两市上市公司已开始披露2016年年报。Based on the data of the three quarterly reports of 2016, we analyze the large profit makers and large loss makers of the listed companies, as well as the companies that issued the performance forecast, so as to make a quantitative forecast of the 2016 annual report performance of the listed companies.
  Profit giants contribute steadily

  According to the third quarter report of 2016, the sum of the net profits of the top 20 listed companies with the highest net profits attributable to the shareholders of the parent company accounted for 57.97% of the total net profits of the listed companies, and the concentration decreased year-on-year and month on month.The data of the third quarter report of 2015 was 60.31%, and that of the semi annual report of 2016 was 59.55%.There are three major banks: one is coal, one is electric, one is construction, one is insurance.
  Among them, the total net profits of 14 listed banks accounted for 49.95% of the total net profits of Listed Companies in the three quarterly reports of 2016 (the total net profits of all 22 listed banks accounted for 51.34%, and 18 banks in the semi annual report of 2016 accounted for 52.61%); the net profits of PetroChina and Sinopec accounted for 2.83%, and the semi annual report of 2015 was 3.51%.It seems that the prosperity of the banking industry will have a direct impact on the overall performance level of Shanghai and Shenzhen listed companies, and the proportion of bank performance in the whole listed companies will decline compared with the 2016 semi annual report.In addition to the decline of net profit in the third quarter report of Changjiang Power, the remaining 19 companies all achieved growth.

361黄金投资——jyzj

  Judging from the performance warning as of January 18, none of the 20 listed companies has issued an annual report warning announcement.Therefore, from the past data, 60% of the 20 big profit makers’ net profit in the third quarter fell month on month.Among the listed banks, only bank of Ningbo and Bank of Jiangsu are expected to increase slightly, while Bank of Jiangyin is expected to decrease slightly.In addition, considering the implementation of replacing business tax with value-added tax in the financial industry since May 2016, it is expected that the contribution of profit giants to the net profit of the overall listed companies in 2016 will remain at the level of the third quarter of 2016.

  Large loss makers’ losses declined
  In 2016, 363 companies reported losses in the third quarter, accounting for 12.21% of the total number of listed companies.In 2016, 401 companies and 13.69% reported losses in the semi annual report, and 463 companies and 16.54% reported losses in the third quarter of 2015.This shows that the losses will decrease year-on-year and month on month, showing significant improvement.亏损最高的前20家上市公司亏损总额占三季报已披露亏损的上市公司亏损总额的59.11%,集中度逐月和同比均有所提高。2015年三季报数据为37.58%,2016年半年报数据为58.66%。这20家上市公司分为2家油气开采公司、3家化工公司、3家钢铁公司、5家机械公司、1家运输公司、1家煤炭公司、1家房地产公司、1家航运公司、1家信息技术公司、1家汽车公司和1家电力公司。

361黄金投资——招商证券股吧

  其中,中石化油服、中海油两家油气勘探类上市公司2016年三季报亏损总额占上市公司亏损总额的21.32%;中远运输一家上市公司亏损占10.95%;机械设备类上市公司亏损5家,包括沈阳机床、中联重科、中国第一重工、太原重工、东方电气等,华菱钢铁亏损总额占比10.95%,重钢和*ST钒钛上市公司亏损总额占比6.65%;华菱钢铁亏损总额占比6.65%,重钢和*ST钒钛上市公司占比6.42%。看来,油气开采、交通运输、机械设备、钢铁等上市公司经营状况不佳,拖累了沪深两市上市公司的整体业绩。
  根据截至1月18日的业绩预告,20家上市公司中,中海油、中远、东方电气、太原重工、云天化、杨梅化工、大唐发电、大油能源、重庆钢铁、中国第一重工股份有限公司预计2016年将出现亏损。*预计St顺丰将扭亏为盈。大智慧预示着不确定的表现。其余9家公司均未发布业绩预警公告。

  可以看出,20家大型亏损公司中有50%在2016年年报中明确表示将继续亏损,11家公司三季报亏损超过2016年半年报的150%。大唐电力将2016年半年报盈利改为2016年三季报亏损。从单季度净利润来看,大智慧、*ST云威、中国第一重工、东方电气、重庆钢铁、石化石油服务、杨梅化工、华菱钢铁、沈阳机床、太原重工等10家公司亏损额环比增加,云天化、一汽夏利、中远、大油能源、*ST钒钛、嘉凯诚、中海油、*ST顺川等8家公司亏损额环比下降,中联重科由2016年二季度亏损转为2016年三季度盈利,而大唐电力则从2016年第二季度的盈利转为2016年第三季度的亏损。因此,三巨头2016年一季报有望对上市公司业绩保持负面影响。

361黄金投资——豆粕价格

  年报业绩预计同比下降5%
  截至1月18日,沪深两市共有1503家上市公司对2016年年报业绩进行了预测。其中,88家公司首次亏损,29家公司继续亏损,191家公司继续盈利,83家公司业绩大幅下滑,412家公司业绩大幅增长,376家公司业绩有一定增长,106家公司业绩有一定下降,149家公司扭亏为盈,69家公司业绩不确定。

  从2016年三季报的表现来看,在88家2016年年报预计首度亏损的上市公司中,有6家公司有望实现盈利,分别是甘肃电力投资公司、智慧农业公司、胜利公司、普耐公司,赤虹锌锗公司和263公司。2016年年报将比三季报至少减少利润26474.87万元。如果将2016年年报与2015年年报进行比较,由于88家公司在2015年年报中实现盈利,预计2016年年报整体业绩至少将减少60.97亿元。

  在预计扭亏的149家上市公司中,有43家公司在2016年三季度出现亏损,其中包括St明科、航天板、新光圆城、黑牛食品、新竹股份、金瑞矿业、*St中企、*St黑化、天山股份、*St百花等,如果能够扭亏,2016年年报至少将公布比2016年三季度减少亏损48.37亿元。
  For the companies that have predicted the performance of the 2016 annual report, compared with the 2015 annual report, the companies that are expected to turn losses have decreased by 59.897 billion yuan, the companies that are expected to greatly increase their performance have also contributed 107.464 billion yuan of new profits, and the companies that are expected to slightly increase their contribution by 40.666 billion yuan, totaling 208.027 billion yuan.It is estimated that the company with a sharp decline in performance will reduce the profit by about 35.124 billion yuan, the company with the first loss is expected to increase the loss by 6.097 billion yuan, and the company with a slight decrease in profit by 8.664 billion yuan, totaling 49.885 billion yuan.After offsetting, a new profit of 158.142 billion yuan was formed.Listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges reported losses in the third quarter of 2016.The total loss of listed companies was 84.174 billion yuan, while the total net profit of all listed companies in the third quarter was 210.8947 billion yuan.Assuming that the total net profit of Listed Companies in 2016 annual report is 1.3 times of that of the third quarterly report, the negative impact of companies issuing performance forecast on the overall performance of listed companies accounts for about 5.62%.

  Overall, it is estimated that the companies that have released performance forecasts will have a positive impact on the overall performance of listed companies, accounting for 5.62%.In contrast, in terms of the overall performance of listed companies, the positive impact of profit giants will remain at the level of the third quarter of 2016, while the negative drag of loss giants will remain unchanged.Early warning companies have a small positive impact on the overall performance.As the performance of 2015 annual report, which is the base of comparison, has been in the state of expanding year-on-year decline at that time, it is estimated that the weighted average earnings per share of 2016 annual report is 0.472 yuan, with a year-on-year decline of about 5%, which is less than the year-on-year decline of 2016 third quarter report.

361黄金投资

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