目前，沪深两市上市公司已开始披露2016年年报。Based on the data of the three quarterly reports of 2016, we analyze the large profit makers and large loss makers of the listed companies, as well as the companies that issued the performance forecast, so as to make a quantitative forecast of the 2016 annual report performance of the listed companies.
Profit giants contribute steadily
According to the third quarter report of 2016, the sum of the net profits of the top 20 listed companies with the highest net profits attributable to the shareholders of the parent company accounted for 57.97% of the total net profits of the listed companies, and the concentration decreased year-on-year and month on month.The data of the third quarter report of 2015 was 60.31%, and that of the semi annual report of 2016 was 59.55%.There are three major banks: one is coal, one is electric, one is construction, one is insurance.
Among them, the total net profits of 14 listed banks accounted for 49.95% of the total net profits of Listed Companies in the three quarterly reports of 2016 (the total net profits of all 22 listed banks accounted for 51.34%, and 18 banks in the semi annual report of 2016 accounted for 52.61%); the net profits of PetroChina and Sinopec accounted for 2.83%, and the semi annual report of 2015 was 3.51%.It seems that the prosperity of the banking industry will have a direct impact on the overall performance level of Shanghai and Shenzhen listed companies, and the proportion of bank performance in the whole listed companies will decline compared with the 2016 semi annual report.In addition to the decline of net profit in the third quarter report of Changjiang Power, the remaining 19 companies all achieved growth.
Judging from the performance warning as of January 18, none of the 20 listed companies has issued an annual report warning announcement.Therefore, from the past data, 60% of the 20 big profit makers’ net profit in the third quarter fell month on month.Among the listed banks, only bank of Ningbo and Bank of Jiangsu are expected to increase slightly, while Bank of Jiangyin is expected to decrease slightly.In addition, considering the implementation of replacing business tax with value-added tax in the financial industry since May 2016, it is expected that the contribution of profit giants to the net profit of the overall listed companies in 2016 will remain at the level of the third quarter of 2016.
Large loss makers’ losses declined
In 2016, 363 companies reported losses in the third quarter, accounting for 12.21% of the total number of listed companies.In 2016, 401 companies and 13.69% reported losses in the semi annual report, and 463 companies and 16.54% reported losses in the third quarter of 2015.This shows that the losses will decrease year-on-year and month on month, showing significant improvement.亏损最高的前20家上市公司亏损总额占三季报已披露亏损的上市公司亏损总额的59.11%，集中度逐月和同比均有所提高。2015年三季报数据为37.58%，2016年半年报数据为58.66%。这20家上市公司分为2家油气开采公司、3家化工公司、3家钢铁公司、5家机械公司、1家运输公司、1家煤炭公司、1家房地产公司、1家航运公司、1家信息技术公司、1家汽车公司和1家电力公司。
For the companies that have predicted the performance of the 2016 annual report, compared with the 2015 annual report, the companies that are expected to turn losses have decreased by 59.897 billion yuan, the companies that are expected to greatly increase their performance have also contributed 107.464 billion yuan of new profits, and the companies that are expected to slightly increase their contribution by 40.666 billion yuan, totaling 208.027 billion yuan.It is estimated that the company with a sharp decline in performance will reduce the profit by about 35.124 billion yuan, the company with the first loss is expected to increase the loss by 6.097 billion yuan, and the company with a slight decrease in profit by 8.664 billion yuan, totaling 49.885 billion yuan.After offsetting, a new profit of 158.142 billion yuan was formed.Listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges reported losses in the third quarter of 2016.The total loss of listed companies was 84.174 billion yuan, while the total net profit of all listed companies in the third quarter was 210.8947 billion yuan.Assuming that the total net profit of Listed Companies in 2016 annual report is 1.3 times of that of the third quarterly report, the negative impact of companies issuing performance forecast on the overall performance of listed companies accounts for about 5.62%.
Overall, it is estimated that the companies that have released performance forecasts will have a positive impact on the overall performance of listed companies, accounting for 5.62%.In contrast, in terms of the overall performance of listed companies, the positive impact of profit giants will remain at the level of the third quarter of 2016, while the negative drag of loss giants will remain unchanged.Early warning companies have a small positive impact on the overall performance.As the performance of 2015 annual report, which is the base of comparison, has been in the state of expanding year-on-year decline at that time, it is estimated that the weighted average earnings per share of 2016 annual report is 0.472 yuan, with a year-on-year decline of about 5%, which is less than the year-on-year decline of 2016 third quarter report.