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360靠什么盈利_鸡年有望抱金鸡(2017-02-03)

360靠什么盈利——000777股票

  Looking forward to the spring market of a shares
  At the beginning of the new year, everything is new.After the end of the Spring Festival holiday, investors will begin to layout investment opportunities in the year of the rooster.A number of chief strategic analysts of securities companies interviewed believe that overseas events during the holiday will not affect the trend of a shares.From the perspective of liquidity environment and historical rules, investors are expected to usher in “spring market”.

  During the long holiday period, the U.S. stock market rebounded, gold rose sharply, and the uneven overseas market worried investors whether it would affect a shares.
  ”As the US market has doubts about whether Trump’s policy can be implemented, the US stock market has lost the core driving force for the rise in the short term, but it is not expected to affect the trend of the A-share market.”Wang Sheng, chief strategic analyst of Shenwan Hongyuan securities, told reporters that the trend of a shares is more stable, and the post festival market may be similar to that from March to June 2016.At present, it is at the lower limit of the shock range, and investors are advised to “do as you should”.

360靠什么盈利——鱼跃医疗股票

  Zhao Yang, chief strategist of Everbright Securities, also said, “the opportunity of a year lies in the spring.We are optimistic about the spring market of a shares.”

  From the past, the probability of “red February” is high.Zhao Yang said that in February and March, a shares always had the habit of “spring agitation”.Statistics show that February is the most frequent period of “spring agitation”.In the 17 years from 2000 to 2016, a shares only fell in February of two years, and rebounded sharply in March, and rose in February of the rest years.
  At the same time, the improvement of market capital and stock market liquidity is also considered as the main reason of “spring market” by many chief strategic analysts of securities companies.

360靠什么盈利——华东医药股票

  Zhao Yang said that the high probability of spring market, on the one hand, because the first quarter is the off-season of capital demand, but it is the peak of credit, so the capital tends to be loose.On the other hand, after the peak of wage payment at the end of the year, the market will increase a lot of financial needs.
  From the perspective of stock market liquidity, Wang Delun, chief strategic analyst of industrial securities, believes that the CSRC’s position will further limit excessive financing in refinancing, which will help ease the liquidity pressure of the stock market and promote the repair of market risk preference.

  In addition, economic growth may exceed expectations for the “spring market” escort.王胜认为,此前市场对经济增长的预期过于悲观,未来还有改善的空间。经济增长预期的修复或将成为市场上涨的催化剂。

360靠什么盈利——jyzj

  在配置方面,分析人士认为,价值股可以处于底部位置,同时持有国企改革、涉农等具有事件催化作用的主题股。
  海通证券首席策略分析师荀玉根认为,今年以来,银行理财基金、保险基金、养老基金配置权益性资产的趋势将保持不变,而这类基金将是上半年A股市场的边际增量资金,因此价值股仍有价值分配为底部位置。

  主题投资方面,荀玉根认为,地方两会密集召开,有望对国企改革作出新的部署,相关个股值得关注。兴业证券认为,随着一号文件的出台,可以关注土地流转、土地复垦改革、农业供给侧改革等涉农话题。

  鸡年有望捧金鸡五大券商观望A股市场
  尽管2017年第一周a股市场出现“良好开局”,但随后的大规模震荡引发市场担忧。春节前,随着资金的完善和养老金市场的到来,市场行情火爆,这也让投资者重新燃起了对春市的预期。随着猴年的远去,鸡年能否迎来生机,主流证券公司普遍持乐观态度。有证券公司预测,全年a股有望实现10%甚至更高的投资回报率。

  海通证券:春市一直在孕育
  海通证券指出,市场短期休息即将结束,为春季行情做准备。

  海通证券策略分析师荀玉根认为,虽然短期市场可能会出现一些波折,但春季市场已经在孕育过程中:一是2016年12月以来导致市场回调的负面因素已经逐步消化。长期来看,保险投资权益性资产的趋势将保持不变,资金紧张的局面将逐步缓解。从历史上看,12月中旬至1月中旬及春节前资金面总体偏紧的局面,在1月中下旬之后自然会有所缓解。二是前期市场担忧没有出现。2016年末,市场担忧年初居民汇率导致汇率快速贬值,但2017年初第一周离岸人民币对美元汇率升值至6.852。第三,中国已进入数据窗口空洞、政策密集期,政策亮点推高风险偏好。
  在荀玉根看来,年初1月至3月是经济和盈利数据的真空期,政策变化成为影响市场的最重要因素。今年3月,全国两会召开“一带一路”,在中央经济工作会议上重点讨论了深化改革,如国有企业改革、供给侧改革,特别是改革重点、去杠杆和对外开放战略。同时,在新的一年里,保险、社保、养老、银行理财等机构投资者,可投资的资金量也在不断上升,而配置需求恰恰对价值型公司有利。

  展望未来,海通证券有望继续完善上市公司基本面,深化叠加改革,增强市场风险偏好,继续调高震荡中枢。未来市场将出现一些波折和需要关注的潜在风险点,如去杠杆导致的信贷风险暴露、周期性通胀恶化超出预期、特朗普上台后大国关系磨合期出现摩擦等。
  兴业证券:两会前的结构性机会

  兴业证券发布的策略报告显示,年初市场约束因素较多,目前仍是蜗牛壳中的结构性市场:货币流动性将受到通胀预期、汇率、去杠杆等因素的影响,且边际收紧;市场存在惯性经济基本面复苏,决策者年初缺乏进一步放松的意愿和动力;特朗普上台后,开始新政,欧元区多国选举,海外市场不确定性增加;美国财政宽大下,通胀上行可能导致2017年加息预期上升,引发流动性拐点担忧。
  “两会”召开后,政策的不确定性降低,改革预期增强,投资者风险偏好增强。在国内主要资产中,a股的配置吸引力相对提高。

  In the view of industrial securities, the scale of bank financial management has reached 26 trillion, and the scale of insurance products has also increased rapidly, bringing huge demand for absolute income allocation.At the same time, the allocation cost performance of other major types of assets has declined, bond yields have rebounded, credit risk has risen rapidly, real estate has reached a high stage, and commodity volatility has increased significantly.In contrast, equity assets are superior in valuation, which will attract capital inflow.
  In addition, the real estate market is expected to benefit from the introduction of a small round of monetary policy.

  From an international perspective, in the medium and long term, the attractiveness of A-share allocation is also improving.In 2017, developed countries are facing many risks, such as the policy direction of the United States after Trump came to power, the process of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate increase, the Bank of Germany crisis and the European multi-national election that will be faced next year.Previously, emerging markets, which are most affected by capital flow and risk preference, have relatively backward performance and reasonable current valuation, may usher in the return of capital allocation.As the “leader” of emerging markets, China’s domestic high-quality assets will benefit from the return of overseas capital from Europe and the United States to emerging markets.After RMB is officially included in SDR, RMB internationalization will continue to accelerate, the channels for overseas allocation of a shares will be further widened and deepened, and the opening of Shenzhen Hong Kong link will also bring policy dividends.
  Everbright Securities: or present the first and second half

  Everbright Securities believes that in 2017, the A-share market will be unbroken, or it will be in the first and second half.In the first half, the decline of real estate investment led to the decline of corporate profit growth; in the second half, the safety margin of valuation was rebuilt, and investors’ risk preference may increase.Throughout the year, a good grasp of the pace is expected to achieve 10% or even higher return on investment.
  In terms of allocation, we should stick to value, focus on blue chip and leading companies, and look for structural opportunities.Specifically, under the constraints of the supply boom, the depreciation of agricultural industry, paper industry, insurance industry, and military industry is expected to benefit.

  Reform is still the most important investment theme, especially debt to equity, mixed reform, PPP and other investment themes.在产业内生和供给侧改革双重规律的推动下,产业整合有望加速,市场集中度的提高有利于龙头企业的发展。
  光大证券董事长兼总裁薛峰指出,中央推进的供给侧结构性改革,不仅包括旧经济和新经济的“破”和“立”,还包括旧发展观和新发展观的“破”和“立”。

  在金融层面,2017年中央经济工作会议特别强调“要把防控金融风险摆在更加重要的位置”。加强金融层面的宏观审慎监管,有助于遏制金融周期的顺周期性,最终有助于实现中央提出的“振兴实体经济”的目标。
  此外,证券业还应“破”与“立”。证券业不能只从短期利润的角度来考虑企业的发展,而必须从更广阔的角度来看待企业的存在价值。只有深入培育区域经济,融入国家战略,真正从客户需求出发,积极回归投行原有业务,担当起投融资安排者、市场组织者、产品创造者、流动性提供者的特殊角色,风险管理者和跨境、跨境、跨市场的资源整合者,才能拥有核心竞争力。

  瑞银证券:年利润将增长5.7%
  瑞银证券在大中华区年会上预测,2017年A股市场利润将增长5.7%,可能有10%的上升空间。截至2017年底,沪深300指数目标点位为3750点。

  瑞银证券首席中国策略分析师高婷认为,2016年和2017年A股盈利将分别增长6.6%和5.7%,其中金融板块将迎来复苏,盈利增长将达到6.8%。
  高婷表示,随着降息等不利影响消退,不良贷款产生速度放缓,银行业利润增速有望加快。在低基数的帮助下,非银行融资将有所回升。预计2017年非金融企业利润增长4%。

  从结构趋势看,我国经济结构再平衡仍在推进,其中服务业在经济中的比重继续上升,消费结构进一步向可选择消费和服务倾斜,矿业和材料业投资仍明显放缓,外商直接投资保持高速增长。中长期趋势为投资者提供了投资机会。
  关于投资主题建议,高挺表示,大消费、人民币贬值受益股(出口和跨国企业)、高股息率和PPP投资受益企业值得关注。

  海外投资者也热衷于中国市场。瑞银证券预计,2017年海外投资者在A股市场的参与度和交易量可能翻番。
  瑞银亚太研究主管达米恩·霍思(Damien Horth)表示,2017年全球经济增长正在加速,而整个亚太地区正在进行持续改革,尤其是在中国。目前,中国正在努力实现增长与可持续发展之间的平衡。国有企业改革是一个重点领域,这些改革还将继续。深圳-香港证券交易所的推出提高了投资者对亚洲市场的兴趣。

  在谈到哪些因素会对a股市场产生负面影响时,瑞银证券认为,a股市场的中期下行风险包括:央行因通胀率高于预期而采取的流动性收紧措施,以及金融监管更加严格导致的市场流动性紧张。
  国泰君安:风险偏好接力盈利回升

  国泰君安在战略报告会上指出,2017年将是中国进入本轮金融周期下半年的第一年,信贷增速将放缓,去杠杆措施有望加快。债转股和国企混业改革可能加快推进。
  国泰君安宏观分析师熊一鸣、华长春判断,货币政策将更加中性和稳健,广义信贷增速有望从今年的17%放缓至13%。财政政策将更加积极地扶底,PPP项目的进入规模和落地率将继续提高,基础设施投资将保持20%左右的快速增长。

  2008年以来,全球货币主义主导的政策格局已经结束,新一轮财政周期正在展开。美国总统特朗普领导的财政刺激和反全球化措施可能会导致其他经济体同步财政扩张。全球金融周期的共振和货币周期的趋同,将使过去几年扭曲的“金融资产泡沫”和“低通胀”逐渐恢复阶段,这将对股市和大宗商品市场形成有利格局。
  国泰君安策略分析师张华恩认为,风险偏好接力获利修复是a股的新希望。PPI推动的A股盈利周期有望在今年上半年见顶。今年系统性的利润复苏将减弱。预计A股非金融行业的年利润增长率将在5%-10%之间。中期利润扩张的转折点需要等待资本支出周期的再现。“一带一路”、一个国企、一个债转股的可能性将更大。市场将逐渐从利润操纵转向风险驱动。

  资产配置方面,金融去杠杆继续加大,权益性资产吸引力进一步增强。预计2017年市场将继续维持横向震荡格局,上证综指将在2800点至3500点的核心区间实现震荡。(经济参考报)

360靠什么盈利

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