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【300247股票】今年A股并购市场发展趋势及政策建议(2017-03-30)

300247股票

300247股票——南非货币

  2016年,A股并购市场呈现出一派欣欣向荣的景象,交易量大幅增长,行业火爆,海外并购热潮此起彼伏。百花齐放的背后,当前a股并购市场的“亚健康”问题也十分突出,主要体现在市场结构失衡,即真正服务于产业发展、产生社会附加值的交易比例明显偏低。对此,我们可以通过加大对传统产业整合项目的支持力度,继续推动2017年A股并购市场健康发展。
  回顾2016年,A股上市公司共公告重大资产重组事项346起,总交易金额13440亿元。与2015年416宗、交易总额12776亿元相比,2016年并购案例数下降16.83%,但交易总额同比增长5.20%,交易规模再创新高。2016年A股并购市场的繁荣主要体现在交易量的大幅增长、热门行业的持续普及以及海外并购的蓬勃发展。

  一是成交量大幅增长。
  统计显示,2016年,交易金额10亿元以上的大中型并购案例占比69.08%,交易金额占比95.48%。与2015年相比,分别增长8%和2.6%。受此影响,2016年上市公司每次并购平均交易额为38.84亿元,较2015年的30.71亿元增加8.13亿元,增幅为26.49%。全年交易金额前五名的案例分别是st济柴收购中石油资本(755亿元)、渤海金融控股收购飞机租赁巨头C2(667亿元)、顺丰控股收购鼎泰新材(433亿元)、天海收购美国IT巨头IMI(395亿元)万达电影收购万达电影(372亿元)

300247股票——汇丰晋信龙腾基金

  行业持续火爆。

  2016年的重大资产重组事件涉及500多个并购目标。根据中国证监会发布的《上市公司行业分类指引(2012年修订)》第二产业分类,上述并购对象超过500家的行业被统计在内。Because it is difficult to strictly distinguish some secondary industries in the actual statistics, in order to facilitate statistical analysis, we divide the wholesale and retail industries which belong to category F, the culture, sports and entertainment industries which belong to category R, and the j industries which belong to category J The statistics of financial industry in the first category are based on the first level industry.
  The statistical results show that the industries with the largest number of targets are Internet and related services (71), computer, communication and other electronic equipment manufacturing (50), wholesale and retail (44), software and information technology services (40) and pharmaceutical manufacturing (31), and the total number of M & A targets of the above five industries is 236, accounting for more than 40% of the total number of M & A targets; the industries ranked 6-10 They are electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry (25), automobile manufacturing industry (23), culture, sports and entertainment industry (23), financial industry (21) and business service industry (20).The total number of M & A targets of the above-mentioned 10 industries reached 348, accounting for nearly 70% of the total number of M & A targets, with a high degree of concentration.

300247股票——期货软件

  Compared with the “top ten list” of industries in 2016 and 2015, there are seven hot industries in total, which are Internet and related services, computer, communication and other electronic equipment manufacturing, software and information technology services, wholesale and retail, pharmaceutical manufacturing, financial industry and business services, and the top five hot industries in 2016 are all 2015 The “guests” on the “top ten list” of the industry in shows that it, medicine and other assets continue to be welcomed by the market.
  3。 Overseas M & A is booming.

  In 2016, overseas mergers and acquisitions of A-share listed companies can also be described as “hot”.There were 40 cases of overseas M & A events in 2015, involving a transaction amount of 303.1 billion yuan, which increased by 90.48% and 263.45% compared with 21 cases and 83.4 billion yuan in 2015.The annual average transaction volume of a single overseas M & A was 7.578 billion yuan, an increase of 3.606 billion yuan over 2015, with an increase of 90.81%.Moreover, in 2016, the overseas M & A of listed companies is undergoing qualitative changes, and many excellent overseas Big Mac assets have been successfully acquired.For example, Qingdao Haier spent $5.4 billion to acquire general electric (GE) home appliance business, Tianhai invested $6.009 billion to acquire ime, century cruise spent $30.504 billion to acquire overseas game giant alpha, Bohai Financial Holdings spent $9.995 billion to acquire C2, etc.

300247股票——160603

  海外并购已成为中国企业整合全球优质资源、提升全球竞争力的重要手段。有一定基础的上市公司开始尝试通过海外并购拓展市场,或开拓高端战略领域;传统产业面临国内市场竞争压力的上市公司也希望通过海外并购走出国门,通过优化全球市场布局保持竞争力。此外,国内外市场存在较大的估值差异,这也是吸引越来越多上市公司进行海外并购的重要因素之一。
  为了进一步研究近两年A股并购市场的结构特征,我们根据并购目的的不同,将并购交易分为以下四类:产业整合、多元化并购、借壳上市(即“重组上市”)和准借壳上市。

  统计显示,2016年中国A股并购市场共发生产业整合140起,多元化并购139起,借壳上市50起,借壳上市17起,占比分别为40.46%、40.17%、14.45%和4.91%。上述四类交易金额分别为4835.23亿元、3687.93亿元、3124.29亿元和1792.81亿元,分别占交易总额的35.98%、27.44%、23.25%和13.34%。

  基于以上数据,研究发现,在百花齐放的繁荣背后,当前a股并购市场的“亚健康”问题也十分突出,主要体现在市场结构失衡,即:,真正服务于产业发展、产生社会附加值的交易比例明显偏低。
  一、产业整合继续受到冷遇。

  在上述四种交易类型中,产业整合是唯一真正服务于供给侧结构性改革的交易类型。在目前的A股并购市场上,产业整合未能得到应有的地位。2016年,并购案例数占比46.40%,与2016年并购案例数相当。也就是说,每一家做产业整合的上市公司,都有一家上市公司“玩跨界”。从规模上看,产业整合交易总额4835.23亿元,占比35.98%。借壳上市和借壳上市交易总额达到4917.10亿元,占比分别为36.59%,分别比产业整合高81.87亿元和0.61个百分点。从2015年的数据来看,产业整合的案例数和交易额仅占29.81%和23.45%。这说明产业整合被忽视了。
  进一步探索传统产业融合。把矿业、农林牧渔业加工、黑色金属、有色金属、非金属矿产品、石油化工相关产业、通用机械制造业、房地产业等纳入传统产业,并将高端装备制造业、互联网及信息技术相关产业、医药及医疗器械产品、商业服务业、科教文卫等新兴服务业纳入新兴产业。2016年,传统产业整合案例33起,占比不到24%,不到10%;2015年,传统产业整合案例仅29起,仅占当年案例的16%,仅占当年案例的5%。显然,传统产业整合在A股并购市场中的地位与传统产业在国民经济中的地位并不相称。另一方面,2016年新兴产业整合案例66起,分别占当年产业整合案例和全部案例的47%和19%;2015年新兴产业整合案例69起,分别占当年产业整合案例和全部案例的56%和16%,差距不明显。可以说,整合传统产业是目前a股并购市场上频频出现的客户“板凳”。

  与新兴产业的兼并整合相比,传统产业的兼并整合对于国家推进供给侧结构性改革具有更积极的意义。发达国家传统产业的发展路径证明,传统产业的兼并整合符合产业发展规律,是改写产业竞争格局、做大做强产业的必由之路。近年来,A股市场的诸多案例也显示出传统产业整合的重大意义。如作为国内钛白粉行业第二家上市公司,百联成功收购行业龙头龙蟒钛业,实现强强联合,成为中国第一、世界第四的钛白粉生产企业,极大地增强了国内钛白粉企业的全球话语权,挑战了原有的全球钛白粉产业格局。This acquisition aroused great concern The widespread attention of the international market and the media has made a certain contrast with the little response of the domestic market.
  Therefore, compared with the significance of industrial integration, especially the traditional industrial integration to the national economy, the A-share M & a market obviously does not pay enough attention to industrial integration, and has not yet taken the due responsibility to solve the problem of overcapacity in traditional industries and promote the transformation and upgrading of economic structure, which shows the due effect.

  2。 Cross border M & A remains high.
  Different from the fact that industry integration, especially traditional industry integration, is not paid attention to, in the current A-share M & a market, diversified M & A transactions are over prosperous.In terms of quantity, the number of diversified M & A cases in 2016 was 139, accounting for 40.17% of the total.In 2015, the number and proportion of diversified M & A cases were 167 and 40.14% respectively.In terms of scale, the transaction amount of diversified M & A in 2016 was 368.793 billion yuan, accounting for 27.44%.In 2015, the transaction amount and proportion of diversified M & A were 335.715 billion yuan and 26.28% respectively.No matter in terms of quantity or transaction amount, the weight of diversified M & A in A-share M & a market is always high.In addition to the logic of pursuing diversification in the traditional industry, most of the reasons for the slow growth of Listed Companies in the secondary market are due to the fact that they are not able to make profits 。

  We have counted the top 50 companies in the absolute increase of the highest price within 30 days after the resumption of trading and the closing price before the suspension of trading in 2016 when the listed companies announced major restructuring events.Among them, 25 announced restructuring plans belong to diversified mergers and acquisitions, and the average increase of these 25 listed companies is as high as 85%.Among the 25 “cross-border play” listed companies, 18 have locked the transformation direction of the new main business in the hot emerging industries.It can be seen that through cross-border acquisition of hot industry targets, the stock price of listed companies tends to rise sharply in the short term, and the main shareholders of listed companies will become the biggest beneficiaries behind the scenes, which is also an important reason why so many listed companies are keen on cross-border M & A. The excessive prosperity of diversified M & a driven by profit seeking effect has obvious harm to the capital market.
  因此,多元化并购案例居高不下,特别是部分上市公司没有考虑利益驱动下的行业整合,这反映了A股并购市场结构“亚健康”的另一大症状。

  3.借壳交易规模居高不下,规避手段层出不穷。
  2016年,随着监管审查的收紧和重组新规的出台,借壳上市得到有效遏制,借壳上市案件数和交易金额较2015年大幅下降60.7%和近46%。全年借壳上市数量也较2015年下降39.02%,但借壳上市交易总量仍与2015年基本持平。面对调控政策的新变化,为避免借壳上市,上市公司也耍了各种新“招数”,大致如下。

  避免“后门组合拳”。上市公司首先计划以现金方式收购无关第三方的教育资产,然后将相关资产出售给大股东和关联方,最后大股东将20%的股权转让给中央企业。交易完成后,公司实际控制人由地方国资委变更为国务院国资委,主营业务发生变化。中国证监会最终通过“现金收购+资产置换+借壳交易”的方式实现了非现金收购+资产置换交易。同样,也有避免走后门的“组合拳”案例。上市公司通过原控股股东先行转让控制权,上市公司购买第三方支付现金等金融资产购买原漆包线业务,完成“控制权+主营业务”的双重变更。新规实施后,此类变相借壳“组合拳”的案件不断增多。
  在实际控制人方面,也有一批公司“大有作为”。A listed company first issued shares to purchase assets, making the original major shareholder of the underlying asset party become the second largest shareholder of the listed company, and through a series of control related commitments to maintain the original controlling position of the actual controller of the listed company unchanged, successfully broke through the “this reorganization does not constitute backdoor listing” barrier, and then changed the commitment after the delivery of the underlying assets To make the second largest shareholder become the actual controller of the company at one stroke, first inject assets, then change the actual controller, which is a disguised backdoor “game”.

  In a word, in 2016, M & A from all walks of life will play an important role in promoting the sustainable development of the A-share market.
  In September 2016, the revised Measures for the administration of major asset restructuring of listed companies was officially issued and implemented.Since then, the policies and rules on new share issuance and refinancing issued by the CSRC, the changes in foreign exchange regulatory policies, and the continuous promotion of the reform of state-owned enterprises will have a profound impact on the A-share M & a market in 2017.From a professional point of view, combined with the long-term practical experience accumulated by the M & a business team of Great Wall Securities, we made the following forecast for the A-share M & a market in 2017.

  1。 It is a high probability event that the number of backdoor listing continues to decline.
  Backdoor listing will continue to cool down in 2017.First of all, the new rules will continue to play the role of “waste heat”.The new restructuring rules issued in 2016 greatly expanded the definition of backdoor listing scope: on the one hand, the quantitative indicators were expanded to five indicators, including “total assets, net assets, main business income, net profit and total equity”; on the other hand, the judgment standard of listed companies’ control change was greatly tightened, greatly reducing the operation space to avoid backdoor listing.

  Secondly, the speed of IPO audit is speeding up, which makes some enterprises give up the plan of backdoor listing.In addition, the secondary market share price of shell companies has remained high for a long time, which also makes many companies to be afraid of backdoor.Therefore, it is a high probability that the number of backdoor listing will continue to decline in 2017.It is suggested that small and medium-sized investors should not spend too much energy on mining the so-called “backdoor listed black horse stocks”.
  2。 The number of pure transfer of control cases is expected to increase significantly.

  随着重组上市政策明显收紧,上市公司控制权转让的同时注入新资产难度加大。在此背景下,一些借壳方采取了先取得上市公司控制权,后向上市公司注入资产的策略。因此,单纯转让上市公司控制权(但不同时向上市公司注入资产)的案件将大幅增加。此外,新规要求上市公司原大股东在重组完成后锁定36个月,这也促使不少上市公司大股东不得通过发行新股的方式转移对上市公司的控制权。对于新控股股东来说,先转让上市公司控制权,就是锁定一个壳资源,让新控股股东在标的资产成熟或监管政策相对宽松时,灵活启动向上市公司注入资产的过程。但对于中小投资者来说,如果继续炒作上市公司股权转让的概念,可能会步入“美丽陷阱”。
  3、“三高”成交有望减少。

  “高估值、高溢价、高杠杆”的“三高”交易有望减少。首先,上市公司“三高”交易的后遗症逐渐显现,这使得上市公司在应对“三高”交易时更加谨慎。随着年报的陆续披露,不少上市公司陷入了因商誉减值导致业绩变化甚至亏损的两难境地。如263预计2016年商誉减值损失约4亿元。其次,监管部门对“三高”交易越来越严格,导致“三高”交易失败率上升。例如,风灾科技以38倍溢价收购麦秸熊被否。
  4.并购市场“资产荒”将进一步加剧。

  随着IPO审批的常态化,许多原本打算被上市公司收购的优质资产纷纷改变主意,首选IPO上市。这不仅是因为IPO具有巨大的财富增值效应,更是因为IPO后不需要进行三年的业绩赌博,股东也没有后续补偿的风险。近期,二级市场有所下滑,中国证监会IPO审核步伐并未如此前预期的那样放缓,这进一步强化了市场对IPO审核常态化的预期。受此影响,不少上市公司将难以找到合适的并购对象,并购市场或将进入“低谷期”。
  但随着IPO审核节奏的常态化,业绩不佳的上市公司通过借壳上市实现“咸鱼翻身”的可能性降低,上市公司的“壳值”将大大降低,IPO的“暴富”效应有望大大减弱。对于拟上市公司的股东来说,成本效益的天平可能会从IPO向参与上市公司重组倾斜,因为参与上市公司重组不仅套现速度更快,而且会产生明显的产业协同效应。我们认为,并购市场特别是产业并购市场何时才能最终走出“低谷”,与上市公司“壳值”的下降高度相关。

  5.海外并购非常火爆。
  海外并购的数量和个案规模将大大减少。首先,外汇将成为2017年制约海外并购的主要因素。受资本项目下人民币不自由兑换和国内资本市场开放程度的限制,国内上市公司在海外并购支付中很难采用股份支付方式。但现金支付受外汇监管政策收紧影响,审核内容较多,审核周期较长,审核标准更严格,使得整个交易的不确定性明显增加。其次,再融资政策收紧将进一步影响海外并购,海外并购交易规模普遍较大,但目前再融资规模不超过上市公司总市值20%的规定,不利于上市公司大规模海外并购。

  6.国有企业改革值得期待。
  随着改革进入“深水区”,国有企业改革成为全面深化改革的重中之重。自2015年9月《关于深化国有企业改革的指导意见》出台以来,完成了国有企业改革的顶层设计和总体规划。到2016年“政策执行年”,配套政策陆续出台。预计2017年将进入“改革实施年”,真正拉开国企改革大幕。随着东航集团、中国联通集团、中国南方电网、哈尔滨电力集团、中国核电建设集团公司、中国船舶重工等企业被列为首批混合所有制改革试点企业,民航、电信、电力、军工等领域的“混合所有制改革”也随之展开工业将占主导地位。石油、天然气、铁路等领域的国企改革也有望在2017年启动,而上海、浙江、广东等地的地方国企改革也有望在2017年从“小试点”走向“大胆”,并逐步带动其他省份的改革向纵深发展。国企改革自然离不开并购,2017年国企改革的推进必将激活并购市场。

  7.更多在新三板上市的公司将成为并购的目标。
  参与上市公司重组的新三板公司将继续增加。当前新三板市场的制度建设导致2016年新三板市场出现流动性困境,流动性不足严重损害了新三板市场的定价功能和融资功能。因此,许多优秀的新三板上市公司纷纷选择与A股上市公司合并。在这种背景下,2016年,新三板上市公司被上市公司收购的案例时有发生,如华塑科技被神州信息收购、奥森诺被帝王卫浴收购等,我们预计这一趋势将在2017年持续,而越来越多的新三板上市公司将成为A股上市公司并购的目标。

  虽然我们预计2017年A股并购市场的“亚健康”状况将有所改善,供给侧结构性改革的作用将进一步加强,但与市场投资者的预期仍有一定距离。为进一步增强证券市场服务实体经济和供给侧结构性改革的能力,进一步引导市场理性投资理念,我们对证券市场监管改革提出以下建议。
  1.进一步拓展借壳上市的定义。

  建议中国证监会进一步扩大借壳上市的定义,至少应将以下两个典型案例纳入借壳上市的范围:一是实际控制人以新资产置换上市公司主要资产,导致上市公司主营业务发生根本性变化;二是上市公司控制权变更后,向所谓无关第三方购买资产,所谓“三方模式”是导致上市公司主营业务发生重大变化的重组行为。“三方模式”不仅构成实质性的借壳上市,而且与一般借壳上市相比,后续操作风险更为突出,因为相关资产注入上市公司后,资产的实际控制人也发生了变化。此外,“三方模式”参与者大多擅长资本运作,热衷于二级市场套利,对中小投资者构成较大风险。

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